Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.130659 2.232327 2.340089 2.463521 2.601901 2.753365 2.933264
2025-03-23 1.996510 2.139493 2.298974 2.492638 2.725270 3.001163 3.362290
2025-03-30 1.872129 2.032232 2.216210 2.447778 2.738684 3.103441 3.617266
2025-04-06 1.773521 1.942436 2.140647 2.396689 2.729367 3.165247 3.818506
2025-04-13 1.701436 1.877215 2.087105 2.364302 2.735292 3.241325 4.046728
2025-04-20 1.668073 1.855401 2.083476 2.392416 2.820595 3.434291 4.491461
2025-04-27 1.652652 1.853681 2.103454 2.451074 2.951875 3.712295 5.160424
2025-05-04 1.616309 1.823094 2.083569 2.452938 2.999977 3.867255 5.659592
2025-05-11 1.583744 1.795345 2.065209 2.454538 3.046343 4.025173 6.231378
2025-05-18 1.535613 1.745325 2.014517 2.406429 3.010583 4.033639 6.461299
2025-05-25 1.505316 1.717211 1.991721 2.396643 3.033784 4.151501 7.031104
2025-06-01 1.473502 1.685819 1.962893 2.375916 3.036774 4.231088 7.545961
2025-06-08 1.438239 1.649727 1.927518 2.345539 3.024687 4.286715 8.061761
2025-06-15 1.424862 1.642217 1.931195 2.373874 3.114573 4.569965 9.720376
2025-06-22 1.390220 1.604942 1.891624 2.333550 3.080827 4.579862 10.269071
2025-06-29 1.355724 1.566893 1.849649 2.287411 3.033103 4.551033 10.622446
2025-07-06 1.328406 1.537825 1.819409 2.258101 3.013434 4.584824 11.415856
2025-07-13 1.319529 1.533472 1.824012 2.283547 3.095834 4.881696 14.829520
2025-07-20 1.319172 1.540620 1.845206 2.336528 3.236119 5.375891 25.269085
2025-07-27 1.304117 1.526920 1.835405 2.338209 3.276529 5.611406 41.174790
2025-08-03 1.289766 1.513763 1.825861 2.339652 3.316493 5.861608 129.957872
2025-08-10 1.263856 1.483826 1.790570 2.296217 3.259988 5.787019 190.685797
2025-08-17 1.248343 1.468156 1.776079 2.287370 3.275442 5.960122 NaN